Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal: Beijing's Calculated Wait

A recent editorial in the South China Morning Post examines Beijing's restrained reaction to the Trump administration's oil agreement with Venezuela, indicating that China may be waiting due to the deal's instability. According to a White House fact sheet, NABEP has secured 100-year concessions for 17 oilfields containing 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, with the Pentagon holding a 35% stake and the State Department obtaining a 20% offtake at cost, along with a right of first refusal and a veto power over board appointments, necessitating a majority of US citizens. An unnamed US official cited by Reuters claims this deal reopens the US oil market to supplies that were previously directed to China, suggesting a forced replacement of Chinese energy interests through a US-controlled intermediary rather than through sanctions. Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, anticipates US$209 billion in royalties and taxes over 25 years, while the White House's projection is approximately US$200 billion. The piece posits that true energy dominance is achieved not merely through executive actions, but through investment, technology, and time, hinting that China's patience reflects its confidence in long-term benefits.