Super El Niño Could Set 2026 Record, Reshaping Winter Weather Worldwide
In early October, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific were recorded at 2.3 degrees Celsius above the norm, with certain regions nearing a four-degree increase. This prompted NOAA's Climate Prediction Center to project an 83% likelihood of a record-setting El Niño occurring between October and December, which would outdo all previous El Niños since 1950. Notable super El Niños took place in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. The event typically results in a wetter, cooler southern U.S. and a drier, milder northern region, with significant impacts from December to March. Southern California is at heightened risk for floods and mudslides, while Florida may see an uptick in tornado activity. Globally, drought is affecting eastern Australia and southern Africa, while flooding is impacting Peru and Ecuador.
Key facts
- Equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures ran 2.3 degrees Celsius above average in early October, with some pockets near four degrees
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the chance of a record El Niño for October through December at 83%
- Only three super El Niño winters exist in the record: 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16
- The 1997-98 super El Niño produced Florida's deadliest tornado outbreak, killing 42 people on Feb. 22-23, 1998
- The first Atlantic hurricane of the year, Isaias, did not reach hurricane strength until late on Oct. 7, the latest first hurricane of the satellite era dating to 1966
- The U.S. Geological Survey measured its most severe winter beach erosion on record along the West Coast during 2015-16
- The winter of December 2015 through February 2016 was the warmest the contiguous U.S. had experienced up to that point, per NOAA records
- A January 2016 blizzard dropped two feet or more of snow on parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New York City during that super El Niño
Entities
Institutions
- NOAA
- Climate Prediction Center
- The Weather Channel
- U.S. Geological Survey
- National Weather Service
- Quartz
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- World Meteorological Organization
- NOAA's National Weather Service
- Met Office
- Dartmouth College
- Stanford University
- University of California, Davis
- NOAA Fisheries
- Scientific American
- Associated Press
- BBC News
- USA Today
- Smithsonian Magazine
- US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Locations
- Pacific Ocean
- California
- Southern California
- Northern California
- Los Angeles County
- Pacific Palisades
- Eaton Canyon
- Sierra Nevada
- Arizona
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- Colorado
- Four Corners
- Phoenix
- Tucson
- Albuquerque
- Mogollon Rim
- San Juan Mountains
- Taos Ski Valley
- Arizona Snowbowl
- Colorado River
- Lake Mead
- Lake Powell
- Death Valley National Park
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Gulf Coast
- Gulf of Mexico
- Houston
- Louisiana
- San Antonio
- Austin
- Florida
- Kissimmee
- Georgia
- Carolina
- Orlando
- Tampa
- Miami
- Idaho
- Oregon
- Montana
- Washington
- Cascades
- Columbia River
- Seattle
- Portland
- Mount Hood
- Snoqualmie Pass
- Idaho Panhandle
- Minnesota
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Great Lakes
- Ohio Valley
- Buffalo
- New York
- Boston
- Interstate 95
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- Philadelphia
- New Jersey
- Cape Cod
- New England
- Quebec
- Ontario
- Canada
- Alaska
- British Columbia
- Alberta
- Saskatchewan
- Manitoba
- Vancouver
- Whistler Blackcomb
- Canadian Rockies
- Australia
- Philippines
- Indonesia
- Singapore
- Malaysia
- Southern Africa
- Zimbabwe
- Malawi
- Mozambique
- South Africa
- Peru
- Ecuador
- Brazil
- East Africa
- India
- Europe
- Asia
- Hawaii
- Aleutian Islands
- International Date Line
- United States
- South America
- North America
- Atlantic Ocean
- Southwest
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- northeastern Africa
- New York City
- Amazon
- Kenya
- Kamuchiri