Polymarket Faces Scrutiny Over $600M in Election Trades After Races Concluded
On Polymarket's offshore platform, two international election markets saw trading volumes exceeding $600 million, mainly after results were confirmed. In Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party secured 438 parliamentary seats, yet over $285 million was traded, largely on candidates who did not win. A significant $41 million was bet on Ahmed's chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, while only $173,000 was placed on Ahmed himself. Chris Park highlighted that approximately $284 million originated from pairs of accounts trading among themselves, which Rajiv Sethi termed "volume manipulation." Polymarket identified and blocked these accounts. The Ethiopian market remained active for 123 days after the election. In Romania, similar concerns arose, with Sethi's algorithm identifying 99.6% of the volume as wash trading. Polymarket has raised over $1 billion, giving it a valuation of $21 billion.
Key facts
- Over $600 million in trading volume occurred on two Polymarket election markets after the races had ended.
- In Ethiopia, $285 million was traded on the election, with $41 million on Shimelis Abdisa versus $173,000 on Abiy Ahmed.
- About $284 million of the Ethiopian volume came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other.
- Polymarket blocked the accounts involved but did not explain the delay in taking action.
- The Ethiopia market stayed open for 123 days after the election, prompting user complaints.
- In Romania, 99.6 percent of volume in certain weeks was flagged as wash trading by Sethi's algorithm.
- MSR Decode analyzed over 38,000 trade loops post-election, finding over 98 percent resulted in no profit or loss.
- Polymarket raised over $1 billion led by 1789 Capital, valuing it at $21 billion, with annualized revenue over $1 billion.
Entities
Artists
- Abiy Ahmed
- Shimelis Abdisa
- Chris Park
- Rajiv Sethi
- Shana Bautista
- Matthew Modabber
- Andre Guettler
- Elon Musk
- Zohran Mamdani
- Donald Trump Jr.
Institutions
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
- MSR Decode
- Barnard College
- WIRED
- Prosperity Party
- Ulm University
- 1789 Capital
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Barron's
Locations
- Ethiopia
- Romania
- United States
- New York City