Morgan Stanley Raises China Humanoid Robot Shipment Forecast to 50,000 Units

Morgan Stanley has revised its prediction for humanoid robot shipments in China for 2025, now estimating 50,000 units instead of the earlier 28,000. This adjustment is attributed to factors such as commercial validation, supportive policies, and supply chain advancements. Earlier this year, in January, the bank had already raised its forecast to 28,000 units. In a report released on Tuesday, it highlighted that several Chinese firms, including electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng, are gearing up for mass production by the end of this year. Additionally, the bank has also updated its 2030 shipment forecast to 446,000 units from 262,000. Full-sized humanoid robots are anticipated to dominate the market, increasing their share from 30% this year to 50% in 2027 and 70% in 2028. Xpeng aims to start mass production of its humanoid robot, Iron, by late 2026. Morgan Stanley pointed to rising competition among local developers and robust national policy backing as key drivers of China's advancements. Furthermore, Chinese companies are utilizing large-scale deployments to gather data for enhancing robot capabilities and speeding up commercialization. Recently, Beijing initiated a nationwide training program to improve robots' effectiveness in performing real-world tasks across factories, warehouses, and hospitals.