Iran War Escalates: Pakistan and Turkiye Warn Iran Over Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia as Oil Tops $101 a Barrel

Key facts

• Pakistan delivered a Saudi warning to Iran to rein in its Yemeni Houthi allies after they stepped up attacks on the kingdom, according to Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources.
• The Houthis struck an airbase in Khamis Mushait and oil infrastructure in nearby cities on Tuesday, wounding 73 people, in one of the biggest attacks on Saudi Arabia since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in February.
• Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on Wednesday that Saudi warplanes carried out 54 airstrikes across various Yemeni provinces over the past 12 hours, adding that they would “not go unanswered and unpunished.”
• Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said attacks spilling into the kingdom could trigger a joint security arrangement involving Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad.
• Turkiye Today reported that Pakistan is likely to carry out airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen at Saudi Arabia’s request, according to Pakistani sources, with one military priority being to clear the Houthis from Saadah, along with other regions.
• On September 8, Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry strongly condemned the Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and called on the Houthis to cease their aggression.
• Oil prices have risen to over $100 a barrel, with some reports citing $101 a barrel, even as more oil has been getting out of the Persian Gulf to the markets.
• Samir Madani, co-head of Tanker Trackers, noted that oil flows are increasing in irregular bursts, with the past 7-day average at 9.85 million barrels per day, up from 8.2 million barrels per day over the past 28 days.
• The baseline for the region, including Oman and Iran, was 18.5 million barrels per day, which bottomed out at 6 million barrels per day in May-June and has now bounced back to over 11-12 million barrels per day, around 39% down from the baseline.
• Even though no Iranian crude has left the Gulf since July, Iran has been exporting refined products, particularly liquified petroleum gas, in non-sanctioned ships, according to Madani.
• Several explosions were reported early Thursday in coastal areas of southern Iran, including Sirik, Minab and Qeshm Island, according to Iranian media.
• President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he expects Iran will abandon its war effort after the US midterm elections – and he conceded American gas prices are unlikely to fall before then.
• On 24 August, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, travelled to Tehran to deliver an important message as regional tensions intensified and the US reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a “D-Day” economic pressure campaign against Iran, warning that countries continuing to trade with Tehran could face secondary sanctions.
• In Tehran, Munir met senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and General Mohsen Rezaei, the newly appointed secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
• According to two sources close to the Iranian government, Munir had a single message from President Donald Trump: “I won’t return to the MoU.”
• Iran is ready for a more intense war and will escalate its counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure, according to a senior official.
• Yanbu crude exports are back over 4m bpd, with over 70% of volume headed north to either the SuMed pipeline or the Suez Canal.
• In Sidi Kerir, at the Mediterranean terminus of SuMed, crude exports averaged 2.2m bpd over the past five weeks, nearly triple normal levels.
• Exports to Asia now account for 43% of Sidi Kerir export volumes versus zero before the Yanbu detour; 59% of Sidi Kerir crude exports are on VLCCs versus 5% previously.
• Global tanker freight rates are surging to record levels with little respite in sight, a sign of the growing strain in oil markets as traders, shipowners, producers and buyers grapple with a drawn-out conflict.
• Ansarallah (the Houthis) have taken full control over Camp Khalid, one of the major strategic positions overlooking the Taizz-Mokha road.
• Yemen's Ansarallah forces are reportedly advancing towards Bab el Mandeb and the Al-Wazi'yah district.
• Saudi-backed Yemeni Defense Minister Taher al-Aqili’s convoy reportedly was blown up during a visit to Dhale Governorate, according to South24.
• In July, Saudi Arabia and the United States bombed Iran-backed militias in Iraq after blaming them for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities that had been claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, another Iranian ally.
• Regional officials tell The Associated Press that the Houthis helped the Iraqi militias plan and execute the two-day swarm attack, showing a new level of coordination.
• Iran spent decades building up armed groups on Israel’s frontiers that suffered major losses in the wars following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of Gaza.
• Iraq has ordered militias to disarm by the end of this month, though powerful Iran-backed groups have refused to do so.
• The Houthi involvement in the Iraqi drone attack was confirmed by two Saudi officials, citing intelligence, and a senior Iraqi security official.
• Two officials with the Popular Mobilization Forces denied involvement in the attack on Saudi Arabia and denied that the Houthis were operating under its auspices.
• The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution requesting the Director General to report Iran to the UN Security Council and General Assembly for failing to comply with its nuclear reporting obligations, passing by 23 votes in favor, three against, and eight abstentions, according to AFP.
• Russia, China, and Niger voted against the resolution, which was submitted by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, marking the first time Iran has been referred to the Security Council in 20 years.
• Iran construction at the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility is continuing despite U.S. threats.
• The Pentagon has created a site to simulate strikes on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Facility.
• The U.S. awarded an emergency $1.2 million contract for a classified weapon to strike the Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Site.
• China kind of saved the day and helped the world avoid the “doomsday scenario” as the Strait of Hormuz closure choked off 20% of global energy supply, according to S&P Global Ratings.
• China’s crude imports rebounded 22% and 6.2% month on month in July and August, respectively, though still significantly below last year’s level, according to official trade data.
• Should China resume importing at its pre-war pace, the drag on global growth from elevated oil prices would deepen well beyond current estimates, said Krishna Srinivasan, director for the Asia and Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund.
• China’s private oil refiners may cut processing runs in the coming weeks as traditional sources of crude supply become scarcer and costs surge, potentially hurting demand in the biggest importer.