Carles Puigdemont's Potential Return to a Transformed Catalonia

The Supreme Court has temporarily lifted the arrest warrant for Carles Puigdemont, the former president of Catalonia and head of Together for Catalonia (Junts), who has been in exile in Brussels for almost nine years. He left Spain after the unsuccessful independence attempt in 2017 and missed his parents' funerals during this time. Catalonia has evolved since then, with the Estelada flag becoming less prominent in Barcelona, where over a third of residents are now foreign-born, compared to about one-fifth in 2016. While independence symbols remain in smaller towns, enthusiasm has waned, and Madrid is no longer viewed as the enemy. The focus has shifted to issues like the cost of living, and Puigdemont's party recently opted not to back Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's housing bill, indicating a disconnect with everyday Catalans. The independence movement is now fragmented; although Puigdemont has loyal followers, he lacks a cohesive vision. He has not set a date for his return, but coming back before the snap election on 29 November could energize Junts supporters, while delaying might allow him to reconnect with a transformed Catalan society. His political stance seems unchanged, yet he must demonstrate how independence aligns with the current priorities of Catalans.