Buffalo, Oklahoma City, and Pittsburgh Top U.S. Home Price Stability Rankings for 2000–2025

Construction Coverage ranked U.S. metro areas by how often buyers since 2000 saw home values fall more than 5% below the purchase price, using Zillow Home Value Index data covering the early-2000s run-up, the 2008 crash, the recovery, and the pandemic surge. Jonathan Jones wrote up the findings, which sort metros into small, midsize, and large cohorts by population, with ties settled by the smaller cumulative decline since 2000. Buffalo, N.Y. leads large metros with a 0% probability of a 5% loss and a worst-case drop of 2.9%, or $3,659, while values rose 203% to a median of $258,121. Oklahoma City, Okla., and Pittsburgh, Pa., also posted 0% among large metros; Oklahoma ranks second nationally for stability behind South Dakota, and Tulsa, Okla., came in at 10.7%. Syracuse, N.Y., and Little Rock, Ark., each recorded 0% among midsize metros, with Harrisburg, Pa., at 9.4%. Among small metros, Sioux City, Iowa, Erie, Pa., Jonesboro, Ark., Clarksville, Tenn., and Johnson City, Tenn., all posted 0%, part of nine markets with clean records. Nationally, a random buyer since 2000 faced a 26.4% chance of a decline greater than 5%, versus 62.3% for the S&P 500, while home values rose 196% against 322% for the index. Las Vegas was the most volatile large metro at 48.5%, with a 63.9% peak-to-trough fall of $210,860; Albany, Ga., was the riskiest small market at 52.2%.