Bitcoin Traders Bet on $80,000 as Polymarket Odds Jump to 59%

Bitcoin is approaching $80,000, with Polymarket traders assigning a 59% probability that it will reach that level before the end of August. The cryptocurrency surged from around $64,000 to nearly $79,500 in three days, a rally of over 20%, driven by a short squeeze that wiped out more than $4 billion in bearish positions. The move has been supported by strong demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $606 million in net inflows on Thursday, the largest single-day inflow since May, and about $1.6 billion in combined inflows from Monday through Thursday. On August 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $307.5 million in net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $239.3 million and Fidelity's FBTC adding $30.2 million. Macroeconomic factors, including the U.S. Treasury's plans to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds, have weakened the dollar and supported scarce assets like Bitcoin. Political developments, such as President Donald Trump's push for the CLARITY Act, have also boosted sentiment. However, risks remain: a pullback to $77,000 has already triggered hundreds of millions in liquidations, and the weekend's thinner liquidity could increase volatility. The first full U.S. trading sessions of next week will be crucial; if ETF inflows stay strong and Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 with volume, traders may target the $82,500–$85,000 range. Polymarket also gives a 35% chance of $82,500 and an 18% chance of $85,000, while $100,000 remains a long shot at 2%.