Ukraine's Strikes on Russia: Showmanship Over Strategy

Andrew Korybko argues that Ukraine's recent long-range strikes against Russia are more about producing dramatic visuals than achieving strategic military gains. He identifies three purposes: to maintain Western support amid war fatigue, to reinforce a false narrative of Ukrainian victory, and to boost domestic morale. Zelensky boasted of strikes in the Urals and Western Siberia, following attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg, and announced a 40-day influence operation. The EU disbursed the first €3.2 billion of a €90 billion loan, but Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary refused to finance it, while Bulgaria banned arms supplies. Korybko notes that Russia continues gaining ground in Liman, Rai-Aleksandrovka, and Konstantinovka. He suggests that Trump, smarting from the US defeat in the Third Gulf War, supports these strikes to distract voters ahead of November's midterms, and that more US-backed Ukrainian strikes are expected over the summer. However, he concludes that the strikes will not change Putin's calculations or result in Ukraine winning.