Thucydides Trap Questioned as US and China Seek Diplomatic Coexistence

An opinion article in the South China Morning Post suggests that a decade of analysis using the Thucydides Trap to interpret US-China relations may not accurately reflect reality. Instead of viewing conflict as inevitable, the piece highlights that both Beijing and Washington are currently engaging in diplomatic maneuvers akin to signaling before changing lanes, indicating a potential for coexistence without escalating to war. It argues that any discussion about power transitions should start with an understanding of power dynamics. In 2025, the US economy was estimated at around US$30.6 trillion, while China's was approximately US$19.4 trillion, making China's economy about 63 percent the size of the US's. The commentary challenges those who deem tensions unavoidable, asserting that both nations are prioritizing dialogue and restraint over aggression for the time being.