Threats to Gulf Water Infrastructure Raise Concerns of Regional Conflict Escalation

Recent threats by former U.S. President Donald Trump to target Iran's water facilities have raised alarms among experts about potential war crimes and regional escalation. Trump stated on Truth Social that if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened, the U.S. might destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, and desalination facilities. Over the past five weeks, desalination plants in Iran, Bahrain, and Kuwait have already been attacked, resulting in at least one fatality and disrupting water supplies. Researchers warn that targeting water infrastructure could trigger a humanitarian crisis, as Gulf nations heavily rely on desalination for drinking water. For instance, Kuwait depends on desalination for 90% of its water, Bahrain for 95%, and Qatar for 99%. Iran faces particular vulnerability due to pre-existing water shortages exacerbated by drought and sanctions. A declassified CIA assessment from the 1980s indicated that attacks on desalination plants could cause national emergencies and refugee movements. Historical precedents include water being weaponized in conflicts dating back to ancient times and more recently in Ukraine. Experts like Dr. Naser Alsayed of SOAS University of London note that water supply is a critical weakness in the Gulf region, with most cities having only limited reserves. The situation is compounded by the integration of water and energy infrastructure, making repairs difficult, especially under sanctions. International law, including the Geneva Conventions, prohibits targeting civilian water supplies, classifying such acts as war crimes. The potential for escalation remains high as both sides recognize water as a strategic vulnerability.