Super El Niño Heat Wave Projected to Cause 451,000 Deaths by February, Climate Impact Lab Reports
So, there’s this report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab that came out in September, and it’s pretty alarming. They’re predicting that the ongoing “super” El Niño could lead to about 451,000 heat-related deaths by the end of February, mainly affecting countries in the Global South. In Africa's Sahel region, they estimate an extra 66,800 deaths, with Nigeria accounting for nearly half of that number. For South and Southeast Asia, the figures include 19,300 deaths in Indonesia, 15,800 in India, and around 19,400 combined for the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. Since June, heat has already caused over 200,000 fatalities. This report hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet, but it aims to inform humanitarian responses. Researchers warn that if the heat persists into June and July, the death toll could rise even higher.
Key facts
- The “super” El Niño event began in June and will extend through February.
- The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago released a report in September estimating about 451,000 heat-related deaths during the El Niño event.
- Since June, excess heat has caused more than 200,000 deaths, according to the team.
- The Sahel region is expected to see 66,800 additional deaths from September through February, with almost half in Nigeria; Sudan, Niger, and Chad also face high fatalities.
- Projected additional deaths in South and Southeast Asia include 19,300 in Indonesia, 15,800 in India, and 19,400 collectively in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.
- The report is not yet peer-reviewed but was publicized early to guide humanitarian and government decisions.
- El Niño is forecasted to raise global temperatures by 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the next few months, similar to expected climate change effects in 20 years.
- Deaths could rise beyond the estimate if high temperatures persist into June and July, and the report only examined heat-related mortality.
Entities
Artists
- Emily Grover-Kopec
- Michael Greenstone
- Christopher Callahan
- Chuchart Duangdaw
- Sara Hashemi
Institutions
- University of Chicago
- Climate Impact Lab
- Rhodium Group
- New Scientist
- Guardian
- Indiana University Bloomington
- Smithsonian Magazine
Locations
- Pacific Ocean
- Global South
- Sahel
- Sahara Desert
- Nigeria
- Sudan
- Niger
- Chad
- Indonesia
- India
- Philippines
- Vietnam
- Thailand
- Cambodia
- South America
- United States
- New York City
- Turkey
- Chicago
- Philadelphia