SpaceX Falcon 9 Upper Stage to Strike Moon on August 5, 2026

An upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is predicted to impact the Moon on August 5, 2026, at approximately 2:35 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. The forecast was made by Bill Gray, an independent astrodynamicist and developer of Project Pluto, which supplies tracking software to astronomers. The rocket part, about the height of a five-story building, was launched on January 15, 2025, carrying lunar landers from Firefly Aerospace (Texas) and ispace (Tokyo). The impact will occur on the sunlit side of the Moon, making the flash potentially faint and challenging to observe. Scientists, including William Cooke of NASA, plan to study the lunar impact plume and dust dynamics. A non-peer-reviewed study on arXiv encourages professional and amateur astronomers to observe the event. The incident underscores the growing problem of space debris near Earth and the Moon, with no dedicated tracking network for lunar orbit objects. Gray previously predicted a 2022 lunar impact initially thought to be SpaceX but later identified as China's Chang'e 5 T1 booster. The upcoming event raises concerns about future lunar infrastructure, as noted by ethicist Anncy Thresher of Northeastern University.