Satoshi's Lost-Coin Quote Turns 16, Reigniting Bitcoin Scarcity Debate
On June 21, 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto posted in a Bitcointalk thread 'Dying bitcoins' that lost coins make others' worth more, a quote now 16 years old. Estimates suggest 2.3-5.25 million BTC are permanently lost, about 15.5% of mined supply. A 2025 study by Mohamed El Khatib and Arnaud Legout found only 3,197.61 BTC provably destroyed. Glassnode data shows 3.557 million BTC untouched for over 10 years. The Patoshi pattern, identified by Sergio Demian Lerner, accounts for 700,000-1,125,150 BTC, possibly Satoshi's stash. River's 2025 report estimates 1.57 million BTC lost via self-custody failures, 98% before 2020. Mt. Gox collapse involved 740,000 BTC, partially recovered. James Howells lost 7,000-8,000 BTC in a Newport landfill; High Court dismissed his excavation bid in January 2025. Lost coins exceed ETF and corporate holdings of 2.2 million BTC.
Key facts
- Satoshi Nakamoto's lost-coin quote was posted on June 21, 2010.
- Midpoint estimate of permanently lost bitcoin is 3.1 million BTC.
- Circulating supply as of June 20, 2026: 20,045,680.42 BTC.
- Provably destroyed BTC: 3,197.61 BTC (0.016% of supply).
- Glassnode reports 3.557 million BTC untouched for over 10 years.
- Patoshi pattern: 700,000 to 1,125,150 BTC attributed to Satoshi.
- River estimates 1.57 million BTC lost via self-custody failures.
- James Howells lost 7,000-8,000 BTC; High Court dismissed his case in January 2025.
Entities
Artists
- Satoshi Nakamoto
- Laszlo Hanyecz
- Gavin Andresen
- Mohamed El Khatib
- Arnaud Legout
- Sergio Demian Lerner
- James Howells
Institutions
- Bitcointalk
- Glassnode
- BitMEX Research
- Whale Alert
- River
- Mt. Gox
- High Court
Locations
- Newport
- Wales