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Philippines' South China Sea stance diverges from ASEAN-China economic pragmatism

opinion-review · 2026-06-13

In May, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared to Japan's National Diet that Manila would commemorate the 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling in July, emphasizing its dedication to resolving disputes peacefully. Nevertheless, the ruling has encountered substantial legal challenges, notably claims that the tribunal overstepped its authority, as China had previously excluded maritime delimitation and historical title disputes from mandatory arbitration through its 2006 declaration under Article 298 of UNCLOS. A decade later, unresolved disputes persist, with ongoing maritime incidents and increasing military deployments. In contrast, ASEAN has adopted a practical economic strategy, with China as its largest trading partner for five years. The Hainan Free Trade Port is emerging as a key hub for a China-ASEAN blue economy common market, enhancing trade and marine tourism, which contrasts with Manila's security-focused alignment with external powers.

Key facts

  • Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. addressed Japan's National Diet in May.
  • Manila will mark the 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea ruling in July.
  • China excluded maritime delimitation and historic title disputes from compulsory arbitration via its 2006 declaration under Article 298 of UNCLOS.
  • The ruling has not resolved underlying disputes; maritime incidents and military deployments have continued.
  • ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years.
  • The Hainan Free Trade Port is being developed as a strategic hub for a China-ASEAN blue economy common market.
  • Manila's security-first approach and alignment with extra-regional powers is at odds with the pragmatic direction of China-ASEAN relations.

Entities

Institutions

  • National Diet of Japan
  • ASEAN
  • United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
  • Hainan Free Trade Port

Locations

  • Philippines
  • China
  • Japan
  • Hainan
  • South China Sea

Sources