Over 50% of Bitcoin Supply Underwater, Historical Bottom Signal Yet to Confirm Capitulation

Key facts

• More than 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is at an unrealized loss for the first time since 2022.
• Over 10 million BTC last moved at prices above current levels, up from 30% a month ago.
• Glassnode data shows coins in loss peaked at 10.5 million BTC at a price of $61,300.
• The 50% threshold has preceded every major Bitcoin bear market bottom since 2011.
• Bitcoin briefly traded 4.29% below its 200-week moving average in June.
• The Fear & Greed Index dropped to an extreme fear reading of 8.
• Wintermute analysts noted Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, its first since 2022, as symbolically significant.
• Realized losses over 30 days total 187,000 BTC, far below the 1.2 million BTC during the FTX crash.
• CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno says capitulation levels have not been reached.
• Bitcoin's realized price is $53,600, approximately 13% below current trading levels.
• Total Bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022.
• US spot Bitcoin ETF demand dropped to negative 74,000 BTC, the lowest since launch in January 2024.
• The current drawdown of roughly 50% from the all-time high of $126,080 is the shallowest in Bitcoin's history.
• CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko attributes the shallower bear market to institutionalization via ETFs and deeper liquidity.