Nomura Debunks 'Tina' Doctrine: AI Rally Masks US Vulnerabilities

Japanese investment bank Nomura has issued a warning that the AI-driven rally in US assets is masking underlying vulnerabilities, challenging the 'Tina' (there is no alternative) doctrine that has underpinned investor confidence in dollar assets. The bank highlights a significant deterioration in the US net international investment position (NIIP), with liabilities rising to 80% of the combined assets of all net creditor nations. US NIIP liabilities reached $21.9 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 71% of GDP, while portfolio liabilities have quadrupled to $37.4 trillion in March 2026 from $9.2 trillion before the global financial crisis. Nomura argues that as the AI surge falters, the risk premium on US assets is being reassessed, potentially undermining the long-held belief that there is no alternative to US dollar assets. The report suggests that investors may need to reconsider their exposure to US markets in light of these structural imbalances.