Macquarie: Chinese AI firms Z.ai and MiniMax may stay loss-making until 2030

Ellie Jiang, who leads Asia internet and software research at Macquarie Group, indicated that Z.ai (also referred to as Zhipu AI) and MiniMax, two Chinese AI companies, may continue to operate at a loss until 2030, even with rising revenues. A significant factor is the high cost associated with competing at the cutting edge of technology, particularly the computing power needed for training and deploying advanced AI models. Jiang highlighted that China's computing shortage is two to three times more severe than the global situation, exacerbated by US restrictions on Nvidia's latest processors. Speaking at the Macquarie Asia Technology Conference 2026, she mentioned that the bank is "still modelling loss-making into 2030" for both companies. Nonetheless, Macquarie anticipates a swift increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR), a crucial measure of monthly subscription income projected over a year, as more businesses adopt generative AI and attract paying users. Jiang noted that Z.ai is aiming for an ARR of approximately US$2.4 billion by the end of the year, while Macquarie's projection is around US$3 billion. She also pointed out the industry's need for improved valuation metrics as these companies evolve beyond their initial growth phases.