Iranian strikes on Gulf aluminium smelters may boost China's market position

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducted missile and drone strikes on two aluminium production facilities in the Gulf region on Saturday. The attacks targeted Emirates Global Aluminium's Abu Dhabi site, which sustained significant damage, and Aluminium Bahrain's facility, where two workers were injured. Iranian authorities stated these actions were retaliatory measures following earlier assaults on two Iranian steel plants, alleging connections between the Gulf facilities and U.S. military and aerospace companies. According to analysis from China International Capital Corporation, the affected smelters collectively represent approximately 3.9 percent of worldwide aluminium production capacity. The research note indicated that any operational shutdowns could cause substantial short-term supply reductions, with potential long-term effects since repairing severe damage to production infrastructure might require multiple years. Industry experts suggest these disruptions could shift additional aluminium manufacturing to China, which already accounts for over half of global output. The situation highlights how geopolitical conflicts can influence global commodity markets and industrial supply chains.