Hong Kong faces US$274 billion lock-up expiry wave

Hong Kong's stock market is bracing for a US$274 billion wave of lock-up expiries this year, which could pressure share prices. Lock-ups typically expire six months after IPOs, releasing a surge of shares. Analysts at SPI Asset Management warn that stocks with large post-IPO gains may face selling pressure unless fresh liquidity arrives. Historical data from Goldman Sachs shows a median decline of 4% three months after expiry and 7% after six months. Shares worth US$35 billion will be freed in the next 12 months, including from hot IPOs like MiniMax. Hong Kong stocks have underperformed global peers due to limited AI exposure, adding uncertainty. Investors must navigate these dynamics to close the gap with global counterparts.