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European Council on Foreign Relations Warns EU Must Prepare Economic Defenses Against China

publication · 2026-03-31

The European Council on Foreign Relations has issued a report urging European Union institutions to develop independent economic defense capabilities in anticipation of potential breakdowns in U.S.-China relations. According to the analysis, Brussels should proactively build strategic economic tools rather than waiting for crises to emerge. The report specifically examines scenarios where China might reinstate export controls on critical technologies, potentially disrupting European supply chains. Tobias Gehrke, the ECFR's geoeconomics expert and lead author, emphasized that Europe must recognize its available economic instruments and determine appropriate circumstances for their deployment. The analysis identifies multiple economic measures within the EU's existing framework that could be utilized in engagements with China. This warning comes amid ongoing global tensions over technology access and trade relationships, with particular attention to semiconductor supply chains. The report suggests that current diplomatic arrangements between Washington and Beijing could prove temporary, requiring European preparedness for shifting international dynamics.

Key facts

  • The European Council on Foreign Relations published a report urging EU preparedness
  • The analysis focuses on potential breakdowns in U.S.-China diplomatic relations
  • Tobias Gehrke serves as the ECFR's geoeconomics expert and primary report author
  • The report identifies economic tools available to the European Union
  • Concerns center on possible Chinese export controls affecting technology supplies
  • The analysis warns against waiting for crises before developing strategic responses
  • Semiconductor supply chains represent a particular area of vulnerability
  • The report advocates for Europe to develop independent economic defense capabilities

Entities

Institutions

  • European Council on Foreign Relations
  • European Union

Locations

  • Brussels
  • Europe
  • China
  • United States

Sources