China's missile test exposes fragile global nuclear order

China's latest test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, which Beijing labeled as a 'routine' drill, has elicited strong reactions from Australia, Japan, the United States, and Pacific nations. These responses underscore worries about inadequate notification and the implications for nuclear-free zones. This test is seen as a demonstration of China's advancing second-strike capability, posing challenges to US allies and complicating Pacific nuclear-free norms while prompting states to reconsider their nuclear policies. The global nuclear landscape is increasingly influenced by three dynamics: the strategic partnership between China and Russia, a US-led extended deterrence framework, and a varied group of secondary nuclear powers and allies concerned about nuclear umbrellas. The first two dynamics are solidifying, while the third remains in flux. For China and Russia, arms control discussions must encompass more than just counting warheads; they must also address US alliances, precision-strike systems, missile defenses, and overseas bases.