US Retail Sales Rise in July Despite Amazon Prime Day Shift

US retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month in July (not seasonally adjusted) to $784 billion, up 5.2% year-over-year, according to Census Bureau data. Seasonal adjustments reduced the monthly gain to -0.6%, but year-over-year growth remained strong at 5.0%. Amazon Prime Day, which occurred in June this year versus July last year, distorted ecommerce comparisons: ecommerce sales fell 2.0% from June but rose 6.2% year-over-year, showing underlying strength. Restaurants and bars saw a 6.0% year-over-year increase, outpacing inflation for food away from home (3.4%). Notable category gains included miscellaneous store retailers (+11.6%), building materials (+5.9%), clothing (+5.4%), and general merchandise (+4.5%). Motor vehicle dealers rose 2.0% year-over-year, while food and beverage stores grew only 1.7%. Ecommerce has become the largest retail category, accounting for 18% of total sales, surpassing motor vehicle dealers (17%). Seasonal adjustment complexities, handled by the Census Bureau's X-13 ARIMA-SEATS software, can distort monthly comparisons. Consumer spending remains robust, with no signs of a slowdown.