US Chaos Strategy Thwarts Eurasian Trade Routes, Iran Remains Last Option
The US has effectively disrupted trade routes across Eurasia, leaving the Iran-China railway as the sole operational link for Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. The Northern Corridor through Russia has become nonviable due to sanctions, while the Middle Corridor has deteriorated under the influence of US/NATO and rising regional tensions. The North-South Transport Corridor is facing challenges, and NATO containment is impacting the Arctic route. On April 8, 2026, Israel targeted the China-Iran railway, but it quickly resumed operations. Following the US blockade on April 13, cargo trains from Xi'an to Tehran now operate every three to four days. By 2029, Ankara and Tehran aim to complete a $1.6 billion railway. Additionally, China is constructing a terminal at the Turkmenistan-Iran border, with two routes involving China, Iran, Turkey, and the EU under development. However, Europe’s economic difficulties pose a risk to China's exports.
Key facts
- US disrupted Northern Corridor, Middle Corridor, North-South Corridor, and Arctic route for Eurasian trade.
- Israel struck the China-Iran railway on April 8, 2026, but it resumed quickly.
- Cargo trains from Xi'an to Tehran increased from 1/week to 1 every 3-4 days since US blockade on April 13.
- Ankara and Tehran agreed to build a $1.6 billion Marand-Cheshmeh Soraya railway by 2029.
- China building railway terminal on Turkmenistan-Iran border and laying new tracks with Turkmenistan.
- Two China-Iran-Turkiye-EU routes in development via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
- China's exports to Europe grew at 5.4% CAGR from 2014-2024.
- Italy quit Belt and Road; Hungary's friendly government fell.
Entities
Institutions
- Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
- Tsinghua University
- Centre for International Security and Strategy
- The Global Times
- Belt and Road Initiative
- ANDAMAN Partners
- Bloomberg
- NATO
- European Union
- United States
- Israel
- Turkey
- Iran
- China
- Russia
- India
- Azerbaijan
- Armenia
- Kazakhstan
- Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan
- Kyrgyzstan
- Tajikistan
- Georgia
- Hungary
- Italy
- Finland
- Norway
- Baltic States
- Ukraine
- United Kingdom
Locations
- Kyrgyzstan
- Europe
- Brussels
- Global South
- Indo-Pacific
- China
- United States
- Russia
- Iran
- Turkey
- Azerbaijan
- Armenia
- Caspian Sea
- Central Asia
- Georgia
- Black Sea
- Xi'an
- Urumqi
- Tehran
- Kazakhstan
- Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan
- Israel
- Strait of Malacca
- Tajikistan
- Afghanistan
- Pakistan
- Ankara
- Marand
- Cheshmeh Soraya
- Aralik
- Arctic
- Baltic
- St. Petersburg
- Finland
- Norway
- Baltic States
- Ukraine
- Turkmenistan-Iran border
- EU