UN warns next 5 years likely to smash heat records
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office project a 75% chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. There is a 91% probability that at least one of the next five years will surpass that mark, and an 86% chance that a new hottest-year record will be set, breaking the record from 2024. The Arctic is forecast to warm nearly 1.66°C by 2030, increasing risks of drought and wildfires in the Amazon. Scientists link the warming to fossil fuel combustion, which drives extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
Key facts
- 75% chance global average temperature between 2026-2030 exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
- 91% probability at least one of next five years surpasses 1.5°C threshold
- 86% chance a new hottest-year record will be set in the next five years, breaking 2024 record
- Arctic warming projected at nearly 1.66°C by 2030
- Amazon faces increased risk of drought and wildfires due to warming
- Paris Agreement set 1.5°C as the safe limit for warming averaged over 20 years
- Burning coal, oil and gas is the primary cause of climate change
- Exceeding 1.5°C leads to more death, danger, and species loss, especially for coral and glaciers
Entities
Institutions
- World Meteorological Organization
- United Kingdom's Meteorological Office
- United Nations
Locations
- Arctic
- Amazon