UAE's OPEC exit signals end of Gulf unity amid security realignment

The UAE's exit from OPEC marks a fundamental shift in Gulf cooperation, driven by security realignment rather than quota disputes. OPEC's founding logic was sovereign solidarity among post-colonial states to collectively control oil resources, requiring a shared threat environment. For 50 years, Gulf states maintained that unity. However, the UAE's fiscal break-even oil price below US$50 per barrel contrasts sharply with Saudi Arabia's above US$90, creating incompatible survival strategies. The fiscal asymmetry makes the rupture permanent. The Abraham Accords, signed on September 15, 2020, by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the White House, exemplify the security realignment that enabled the OPEC exit. The article argues that security architecture, not quota arithmetic, holds a cartel together.