Three scenarios for global stability after systemic conflict

The article outlines three possible paths for global stability as the current systemic conflict—encompassing trade wars, financial battles, and military confrontations—reshapes the world order. These scenarios are: US reassertion of dominance, China emerging as the leader, or a bipolar world with two centers of power. The author frames the current turbulence as part of a recurring historical cycle, noting that major crises associated with changes in world leadership occur roughly every 70 to 100 years, while technological and economic paradigm shifts happen every 40 to 60 years, and internal phase changes every 25 to 30 years. However, the historical spiral may be tightening, shortening these intervals. The article cites the period from 1815 to 1914 as an example of a long stable cycle following the Napoleonic wars, characterized by British hegemony and industrialization. The current systemic conflict should not be viewed as isolated episodes (e.g., US-Israeli war against Iran, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, US-China tariff war) but as a stage in broader global restructuring.