The Perils of Year-End Trend Lists: A Forecaster's Guide
As December approaches, a diverse group of professionals—including forecasters, branding agencies, analysts, consultants, bloggers, columnists, and technology gurus—succumbs to what the author calls 'creeping trend eschatology': a compulsion to publish year-end predictions for the coming year. These lists, such as 'Top 10 Tech Trends for 2013' or 'Top 5 Digital Media Trends for 2013', often crowd out thoughtful analysis with novelty predictions and linkbait, leaving readers confused and unable to distinguish valuable forecasts from mere guesses. The author, a professional forecaster, offers a public service guide to critically consuming these lists. Key points include: predictions are not forecasts—predictions are single statements while forecasts are ranges of possibility; consider the source's stake in the prediction, as technology companies may have cognitive biases; evaluate the criteria behind 'huge' trends; recognize that trends do not align neatly with calendar years; and demand accountability for past forecasts, citing The Economist's post-mortem of its 2012 predictions by foresight expert Helene Lavoix. The author concludes that being a critical consumer is essential to avoid being 'data rich and decision poor'.
Key facts
- The article discusses the phenomenon of year-end trend prediction lists.
- It is written by a professional forecaster.
- The author criticizes the lack of rigor in many year-end predictions.
- The guide includes five considerations for evaluating trend lists.
- Predictions are distinguished from forecasts.
- The source's stake in predictions is highlighted as a potential bias.
- The Economist's 2012 predictions were reviewed by Helene Lavoix.
- The article was published by Quartz.
Entities
Institutions
- Quartz
- The Economist
Sources
- Quartz —