The Historical Invention of the Future and Its Modern Discontents
Joshua Rothman's latest essay in The New Yorker explores the evolving perceptions of the future from 1517 to 1793, heavily referencing Reinhart Koselleck’s work, 'Futures Past'. He compares the despondent outlook of earlier eras with the optimism fostered during the Enlightenment, particularly illustrated by Robespierre's oration in 1793. Additionally, Rothman examines Carissa Véliz’s 'Prophecy', which suggests that often predictions are driven by a desire for power rather than an earnest pursuit of truth. Remarkably, a Pew Research study reveals that only 14% of Americans are eager to leap forward, with nearly half preferring a return to the past.
Key facts
- The concept of the future as an open horizon emerged between 1517 and 1793.
- Reinhart Koselleck's 'Futures Past' contrasts pre-modern apocalyptic views with Enlightenment progress.
- Maximilien Robespierre in 1793 declared the French Revolution a new beginning for history.
- Carissa Véliz's 'Prophecy' argues predictions are power moves, not truth-seeking.
- Véliz identifies five categories of prediction troubles: data, social, scientific, coincidental, and ironical.
- Pew Research found only 14% of Americans would choose to travel to the future.
- Hans Rosling described the world as 'bad and better', like a premature baby in an incubator.
- The essay concludes that realistic futures are scary because they reflect present vigilance.
Entities
Artists
- Joshua Rothman
- Reinhart Koselleck
- Maximilien Robespierre
- Martin Luther
- Carissa Véliz
- Hans Rosling
Institutions
- University of Oxford
- Pew Research Center
- The New Yorker