Ted Postol's Lonely Crusade: Why Missile Defense Criticism Fails to Stop U.S. Weapons Programs
Theodore Postol, an emeritus professor at MIT, has been a critic of U.S. missile-defense initiatives for more than thirty years. Previously serving as a science adviser to the Chief of Naval Operations, he challenged the Army's assertions regarding the effectiveness of Patriot missiles post-1991 Gulf War, estimating interception rates might fall below 10 percent. His attention later turned to national missile defense, where he pointed out challenges in differentiating between warheads and decoys. Despite his criticisms, including a notable 1997 conflict involving TRW and Boeing, these programs progressed. In 2002, President George W. Bush mandated the deployment of the GMD system, with the initial interceptor operational in Fort Greely, Alaska, by July 2004. The article recommends that Congress enhance decision "gates" to boost accountability in defense initiatives.
Key facts
- Theodore Postol is a physicist and MIT professor emeritus.
- After the 1991 Gulf War, Postol challenged Army claims about Patriot missile success, testifying in 1992 that intercept rates could be below 10% or zero.
- Postol worked with MIT's George Lewis to analyze television footage of Patriot engagements.
- A 1997 flight experiment on decoys sparked disputes involving TRW, Boeing, the Missile Defense Agency, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, and engineer Nira Schwartz.
- In 2002, President George W. Bush directed initial missile-defense capability to be fielded starting 2004.
- The first GMD interceptor was lowered into its silo at Fort Greely, Alaska, in July 2004.
- The F-35 is the most expensive weapons program in Department of Defense history.
- The Marine Corps declared the F-35B operational in 2015 without comprehensive deployability testing of ALIS.
- The F-35 full-rate production decision arrived in March 2024, years after large-scale production had begun.
Entities
Artists
- Theodore Postol
- Ted Postol
- George Lewis
- Nira Schwartz
- George H. W. Bush
- George W. Bush
Institutions
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Office of Technology Assessment
- Stanford Center for International Security and Arms Control
- TRW
- Boeing
- Missile Defense Agency
- MIT Lincoln Laboratory
- U.S. Congress
- U.S. House of Representatives
- Government Accountability Office
- U.S. Department of Defense
- The Pentagon
- U.S. Marine Corps
- U.S. Army
- U.S. Navy
- White House
Locations
- United States
- Iraq
- Alaska
- Fort Greely
- Hill Air Force Base