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Stagflation fears echo 1970s neoliberal pivot

economy-finance · 2026-05-08

Economists warn that a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger stagflation—a combination of stagnation and inflation—reminiscent of the 1970s crisis that paved the way for neoliberalism. The strait's blockade would reduce global oil supply by ten percent, sparking price wars among nations. IEA chief Fatih Birol cautioned the current crisis could surpass previous ones in severity. Germany, despite low direct oil imports from the Persian Gulf, already feels the impact through rising energy prices. The article draws historical parallels to how stagflation in the 1970s led to the rise of neoliberal economic policies.

Key facts

  • Strait of Hormuz closure could cause stagflation
  • Global oil supply would drop by 10%
  • Nations compete for scarce oil, driving up prices
  • Fatih Birol (IEA) warned crisis could be worse than past ones
  • Germany affected despite low Persian Gulf oil imports
  • 1970s stagflation led to rise of neoliberalism
  • Energy price shock is a key factor
  • Historical impact on economy and society lasted decades

Entities

Institutions

  • International Energy Agency (IEA)

Locations

  • Strait of Hormuz
  • Germany
  • Persian Gulf

Sources