Russia Halts Kazakh Oil Transit to Germany via Druzhba Pipeline from May 1

Starting May 1, 2026, Russia will cease the transit of Kazakh oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline, which will affect the Schwedt refinery, responsible for 17% of East Germany's diesel, petrol, and heating oil. This facility was taken from Rosneft in 2022. While Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak attributed the decision to technical difficulties, analysts remain skeptical. Sergey Vakulenko proposed that Moscow might leverage this interruption to exert pressure on Ukraine concerning drone strikes on crucial Russian oil export ports. This development comes as Chancellor Friedrich Merz grapples with mounting pressure from rising fuel costs and a reduced growth outlook. Germany intends to redirect Kazakh oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal and Ust-Luga, both of which are under Ukrainian attack. The PCK refinery is experiencing kerosene shortages, prompting Lufthansa to reduce its flights by 20,000. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD is leading in polls, focusing on the cost of living and energy connections with Russia.