Putin's Optimism Amid Russia's Waning Options in Ukraine War

Despite Ukrainian drones striking deep into Russia, a rising budget deficit, and declining public satisfaction, Vladimir Putin remains publicly confident about the war in Ukraine. Western media have highlighted Ukraine's successes, including attacks on Russian oil refineries, but these have not forced a policy change. Putin's forces continue a slow advance toward the last two fortress cities in Donetsk, aiming to claim full liberation of the Donbas, a goal that emerged after the initial 2022 invasion objectives failed. Russia retaliates against Ukraine's long-range strikes by targeting logistical depots and petrol stations, while planning a winter campaign against Ukraine's electrical infrastructure, potentially targeting 750kV substations. Ukraine's generating capacity has plummeted from nearly 55 gigawatts to just 12 gigawatts, and last winter saw temperatures in Kyiv apartments drop to -10C. Putin's optimism may stem from curated reports and a belief that Ukraine could concede, seeking neutrality, recognition of territorial gains, sanctions relief, and a victory declaration. However, Russia's elite are divided: pragmatists favor freezing the front line and negotiating, while hawks advocate escalation with more troops and sabotage in Europe. Putin appears to favor the hawks but avoids choosing, hoping General Winter will secure victory. The article is authored by Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, and published by Monocle.