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Middle East conflict forces European firms in China to rethink supply chains

economy-finance · 2026-05-13

A flash survey of European companies in China reveals that over a quarter have adjusted supply chain strategies due to the Middle East conflict, with rising energy and logistics costs. Six in 10 chemicals and petroleum firms made changes, 35% onshoring production to China. In machinery, 14% of those adjusting aim to increase local capacity. The survey, published Tuesday, shows 81% struggle to source Middle Eastern inputs, two-thirds face longer delivery times and high transport costs, and 66% encounter higher energy costs. Nearly a quarter warn of possible production stoppages within three to six months if conflict persists. The automotive sector saw 62% of surveyed firms report demand decline. Overall, over 30% of affected respondents reported lower demand. US President Donald Trump's comments on Tuesday that Washington and Tehran must make a deal or face decimation further fuel concerns of protracted conflict.

Key facts

  • More than a quarter of European firms in China adjusted supply chain strategies due to Middle East conflict.
  • Six in 10 chemicals and petroleum firms made changes, 35% onshoring production to China.
  • 14% of machinery firms adjusting supply chains look to increase local production capacity.
  • 81% of European firms in China struggle to source Middle Eastern inputs.
  • Two-thirds report longer delivery times and high transport costs.
  • 66% face higher energy costs.
  • Nearly a quarter warn of possible production stoppages within 3-6 months if conflict persists.
  • 62% of automotive sector firms report demand decline.

Entities

Locations

  • China
  • Middle East
  • Iran
  • United States
  • Washington
  • Tehran

Sources