Marine Invasion Risk Framework Combines Environmental Similarity and Vessel Mobility

A novel theoretical framework has been developed to assess the risk of marine invasions by integrating environmental similarities among ports with both current and projected maritime movement. Conventional risk evaluations depend on comprehensive ballast water and traffic data, which are often insufficient and restrict global insights. This new approach employs climate-based features to define the marine environments of each port and utilizes Automatic Identification System data to analyze vessel movements and possible transfer routes. By applying clustering and metric learning, the framework identifies climate counterparts and estimates the likelihood of species survival along shipping lanes. Additionally, a temporal link prediction model examines how traffic dynamics might evolve with changing environmental factors, creating a combined predictor for invasive species pathways that fills the gaps left by traditional assessments.