Libya's Energy Collapse After 2011 NATO Intervention Impacts European Supply Amid 2026 Shortages

In 2026, Europe is projected to encounter significant energy shortages, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, potentially leading to a jet fuel crisis. The situation could worsen if the Bab el Mandeb strait also becomes impassable. Protests over fuel prices in Ireland are causing political instability. Europe's dependence on Algerian oil and gas is minimal. Although Libya possesses Africa's largest crude reserves, its production has plummeted since the 2011 NATO intervention, with oil output declining from 1.65 million barrels per day to levels below those before the conflict, and gas exports dropping from 9.26 billion cubic meters in 2010 to just 1.33 bcm in 2024. A delayed pipeline project might enhance exports by 2030, yet Libya's fractured governance complicates matters, alongside ongoing regional conflicts.