Iran's Strategic Calculus: Betting on US Fatigue Over Hormuz

Iranian leaders believe they have the upper hand in the standoff with the US over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global energy. They are betting that military pressure will force the US to accept their control, citing dwindling US arms stockpiles, including advanced missile interceptors, and the unpopularity of the war among Americans. Tehran also notes that high petrol and goods prices ahead of the US congressional elections in November could pressure the Trump administration. Iran calculates that opening the strait by force would be costly and might require ground troops, and that Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the conflict and disrupt another major trade route. However, this strategy carries risks, as hinted by the article, though specifics are not detailed. The article references the Strait's name, derived from a Zoroastrian deity destined to win after a 9,000-year struggle, drawing a parallel to Iran's perceived imminent victory. The piece is based on a report from the South China Morning Post, with a photo of an anti-US hoarding in Tehran.