Insider Trading Suspected in Iran War Bets on Polymarket

Nine linked anonymous accounts on the prediction market Polymarket have placed winning wagers on events related to a potential U.S.-Iran conflict, achieving a 98% success rate. The bets, identified by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, include predictions on U.S. military strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and a ceasefire. The accounts appear to be coordinated, suggesting possible insider trading or access to non-public information. Polymarket, a decentralized platform, allows users to bet on real-world outcomes. The suspicious activity raises concerns about market manipulation and the integrity of prediction markets. Bubblemaps traced the accounts' on-chain activity, revealing patterns of simultaneous betting and fund transfers. The accounts have collectively earned significant profits from these high-accuracy wagers. No official investigation has been announced, but the findings highlight vulnerabilities in decentralized prediction markets.