Hindsight Regret Framework Audits Marketing Budget Allocation
A novel framework for retrospective auditing leverages hindsight regret to evaluate the effectiveness of marketing budget distribution. Outlined in arXiv:2604.25977, this approach derives regime-specific spend-response functions from past data, calculates viable hindsight allocations using constrained optimization, and assesses uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations. It generates regret distributions, expected lift metrics, and probability-of-improvement summaries, distinguishing between allocation inefficiencies and uncertainties in response surfaces. Tests conducted on actual marketing allocation data reveal clear post-hoc diagnostics.
Key facts
- Framework based on hindsight regret
- Hindsight regret defined as opportunity cost relative to constraint-faithful benchmark
- Estimates regime-specific spend-response functions from historical logs
- Computes feasible hindsight allocations via constrained optimization
- Propagates uncertainty through Monte Carlo evaluation
- Produces regret distributions, expected lift, and probability-of-improvement summaries
- Separates allocation inefficiency from uncertainty in estimated response surfaces
- Experiments on real marketing allocation logs show interpretable post-hoc diagnostics
Entities
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