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Goldman Sachs Forecasts China's AI Revenue to Hit US$13B

ai-technology · 2026-08-05

Goldman Sachs anticipates that China's revenue from artificial intelligence will hit US$13 billion, fueled by advancements and widespread adoption. The bank expects a significant increase in revenue as Chinese AI models reduce costs, enhance functionalities, and gain a share of the global market. Specifically, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end annual recurring revenue (ARR) estimates to US$2.5 billion for Zhipu AI, which is listed in Hong Kong, and US$1 billion for MiniMax. The report highlights a growing competition among Chinese AI models to achieve the best performance-to-price ratio, especially after MiniMax introduced its H3 model at 30 to 50 percent of existing market prices. This multi-modal system can handle text, images, video, audio, and music. On the same day, DeepSeek unveiled API access for its V4 Flash model, which offers front-end coding capabilities comparable to Zhipu's GLM-5.2. As per Arena AI's latest rankings, GLM-5.2 is seventh globally in front-end coding, with DeepSeek V4 Flash closely trailing in eighth.

Key facts

  • Goldman Sachs projects China's AI revenue to reach US$13 billion.
  • The bank forecasts a sharp revenue surge due to cost reductions and capability improvements.
  • Zhipu AI's projected year-end ARR is US$2.5 billion.
  • MiniMax's projected year-end ARR is US$1 billion.
  • MiniMax launched its H3 model on Friday under an open-weight approach.
  • H3 is priced at 30-50% of incumbent market levels.
  • DeepSeek launched API access for V4 Flash on the same day.
  • GLM-5.2 ranks seventh globally in front-end coding; DeepSeek V4 Flash ranks eighth.

Entities

Institutions

  • Goldman Sachs
  • Zhipu AI
  • MiniMax
  • DeepSeek
  • Arena AI

Locations

  • China
  • Hong Kong

Sources