Global birthrate decline accelerates, demographer warns of existential consequences

In an interview with The Atlantic, University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde argues that falling fertility rates are the most important issue of our time, alongside AI. He notes that 2023 was the first year in human history that the global total fertility rate fell below replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. The UN predicted 350,000 births in South Korea in 2023, but only 230,000 occurred. Fernández-Villaverde forecasts world population will begin declining around 2055. He attributes the decline to changing social norms via social media, service-based economies empowering women, an educational arms race, and high housing costs. He warns that if Thailand's fertility rate of 0.8 persists for 200 years, its population would shrink from 63 million to 2 million. He also discusses the tension between immigration as a solution and the preservation of national identity and languages like Catalan.