Future-Back Threat Modeling: A New Predictive Cybersecurity Framework

A new arXiv preprint (2511.16088v3) proposes Future-Back Threat Modeling (FBTM), a predictive cybersecurity framework. Traditional threat modeling is reactive, relying on known TTPs and past incidents, while prediction frameworks are often disconnected from operational artifacts. The paper argues that major threats arise from unknown, assumed, or future origins, including AI, information warfare, and supply chain attacks, where adversaries create exploits that bypass current defenses. FBTM starts from envisioned future threat states and works backward to expose assumptions, blind spots, and vulnerabilities in existing defense architecture. The announcement type is 'replace-cross', indicating a revised version. The abstract suggests the method provides clearer and more accurate threat identification, though the text truncates.