Enrollment Cliff Threatens American Colleges, Mergers and Closures Loom
The enrollment cliff, driven by declining birth rates since 2007, is already impacting American colleges. The number of high-school graduates is projected to drop 13% by 2041, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. At least 16 nonprofit colleges closed in the past year, and seven announced mergers or acquisitions. The University of Vermont reported a 15% drop in incoming freshmen for 2026-27, citing demographic decline and visa policies. Experts like Nathan Grawe of Carleton College and Kevin Carey of New America warn of a winner-takes-all situation where elite schools thrive while others face irreversible decline. The Peralta Community College District proposed merging Merritt College with Laney College. Mills College merged with Northeastern University in 2022. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia warned that a 15% enrollment drop could close up to 80 colleges. Community colleges may benefit, and programs like CUNY's ASAP show promise in retaining students.
Key facts
- Birth rates in America declined after peaking in 2007, leading to fewer 18-year-olds by 2029.
- Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education projects a 13% drop in high-school graduates by 2041.
- At least 16 nonprofit colleges closed in the past year; seven announced mergers or acquisitions.
- University of Vermont expects a 15% drop in incoming freshmen for 2026-27 and 7% overall enrollment decline.
- Mills College merged with Northeastern University in 2022, becoming Mills College at Northeastern University.
- Peralta Community College District proposed merging Merritt College with Laney College to create Oakland City College.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia warned of up to 80 college closures if enrollment drops 15%.
- Bain & Company declared in 2012 that roughly a third of American colleges were financially unsustainable.
- CUNY's ASAP program nearly doubled associate-degree graduation rates at three community colleges.
- States like Hawaii, Illinois, California, and New York may see high-school graduate populations drop over 25%.
Entities
Institutions
- Merritt College
- Peralta Community College District
- Laney College
- Mills College
- Northeastern University
- University of Vermont
- Carleton College
- New America
- Bain & Company
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
- Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
- City University of New York
- University of California
- University of North Carolina
- University of Alabama
- University of Florida
- Syracuse University
- Harvard University
- Pomona College
- Amherst College
Locations
- Oakland
- California
- United States
- Boston
- North Carolina
- Alabama
- Florida
- New York
- Hawaii
- Illinois
- New England