ARTFEED — Contemporary Art Intelligence

CREDENCE Framework Decomposes Concept Uncertainty in AI Models

ai-technology · 2026-04-29

A novel framework named CREDENCE (Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation) has been developed by researchers for Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs). This innovative approach distinctly separates concept uncertainty into two types: epistemic and aleatoric. In contrast to traditional CBMs that provide point probabilities merging reducible model underspecification with irreducible input ambiguity, CREDENCE characterizes each concept through a credal prediction, represented as a probability interval. Epistemic uncertainty arises from varying opinions among different concept heads, while aleatoric uncertainty is calculated using a specific ambiguity output that aligns with annotator disagreement when applicable. This separation allows for more informed decision-making, including automating low-uncertainty instances and directing high-aleatoric cases for human evaluation. The findings are presented in arXiv preprint 2604.24170.

Key facts

  • CREDENCE stands for Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation.
  • It is a framework for Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs).
  • It decomposes concept uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components.
  • Epistemic uncertainty is derived from disagreement across diverse concept heads.
  • Aleatoric uncertainty is estimated via a dedicated ambiguity output.
  • The framework supports prescriptive decisions like automation and data collection.
  • The preprint is available on arXiv with ID 2604.24170.
  • The work addresses conflation of uncertainty types in standard CBMs.

Entities

Institutions

  • arXiv

Sources