Compound Flooding: Climate Change Multiplies Hurricane Risks Along US Coasts
An analysis conducted by Dr. Jeff Masters indicates that climate change is leading to an increase in both the frequency and intensity of compound flooding events along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. Taking Hurricane Harvey, which struck in 2017 and resulted in $164 billion in damages, as an example, the study reveals that 19% of the flooding area was attributed to compound flooding. Projections suggest that this figure could escalate to 33% by 2050 and reach 46% by 2100. Since 1900, sea level rise has quadrupled the occurrence of coastal extremes, with 100-year floods now happening every few years in locations such as Jacksonville and Key West. The analysis warns that by 2100, the likelihood of compound events could rise significantly, rendering some areas of the U.S. uninhabitable by the century's end.
Key facts
- Hurricane Harvey (2017) caused $164 billion in damages, second only to Hurricane Katrina.
- Harvey dumped 60.58 inches of rain at Nederland, Texas, a U.S. record for a tropical cyclone.
- A 2023 study found 19% of Harvey's flood area was due to compound flooding.
- By 2050, compound flooding area from a Harvey-like storm could increase to 33% with 0.57m sea level rise and 18% more rain.
- By 2100, compound flooding area could reach 46% with 1.6m sea level rise and 50% more rain, impacting 23 times more structures.
- Sea level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900.
- A 2022 study projects that by 2100, return periods for extreme compound floods could shorten by 7-36 times in the South and 30-195 times in the North.
- Hurricane Sandy-like events in New York City could become one-in-30-year events by 2100, up from one-in-150 years currently.
- Hurricane seasons have been starting earlier by two days per decade since 1900.
- A 2026 preprint projects a 61-115% increase in compound wind and precipitation extremes within 100km of coast, and 92-204% inland by 2100.
- A 2020 study found that odds of a one-in-50-year coastal flood could double every five years.
- The article warns that portions of U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts may become unlivable by late this century.
Entities
Institutions
- NOAA
- Weather Underground
- Yale Climate Connections
- Naked Capitalism
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Locations
- United States
- Texas
- Houston
- Port Arthur
- Nederland
- Corpus Christi
- Lesser Antilles Islands
- Caribbean Sea
- Mexico
- Yucatan Peninsula
- Gulf of Mexico
- Florida
- Key West
- Jacksonville
- Atlantic City
- Maine
- Charleston
- South Carolina
- Galveston
- Miami
- New Jersey
- New York City
- New Orleans
- Mississippi River
- Chesapeake Bay
- New England
- North Carolina
- Delaware