Chokepoints and the cost of cutting off access
An editorial in the South China Morning Post delves into the notion of chokepoints, suggesting that the most perilous ones are not merely the most confined waterways or unique technologies, but rather those where a limited number of individuals hold the decision-making power. It raises three pivotal inquiries: the extent of reliance on the chokepoint, the requirements for its utilization, and the identity of the decision-makers. The crux of a chokepoint is found in the second question, focusing on what one must sacrifice—whether in terms of blood, finances, legality, or reputation—before influence translates into action. The article recalls China's 'Malacca dilemma,' initially articulated by then-president Hu Jintao in 2003, highlighting concerns over 'certain major powers' potentially controlling the Strait of Malacca, which underscores China's vulnerability regarding energy imports. Two decades later, this anxiety has fueled Beijing's naval expansion, alongside tensions over Taiwan, territorial claims, and rivalry among great powers. The piece concludes that if control over a passage is unattainable, one must develop sufficient capabilities to deter any thoughts of its closure by others.
Key facts
- The article is an opinion piece from the South China Morning Post.
- It argues that the most dangerous chokepoints are those where the final decision rests with the fewest people.
- Three questions are posed: how much depends on it, what it takes to use it, and who decides.
- The threshold of a chokepoint is defined by what someone must risk before leverage becomes action.
- In 2003, Chinese president Hu Jintao warned about the 'Malacca dilemma'.
- The 'Malacca dilemma' refers to China's dependence on imported energy through the Strait of Malacca.
- Beijing's naval build-up is driven by the Malacca dilemma, Taiwan, territorial disputes, and great-power competition.
- The article suggests building capability to deter closure of chokepoints.
Entities
Institutions
- South China Morning Post
Locations
- China
- Strait of Malacca