China-US Farm Deal Scope Hinges on Soybean Math

China has issued five-year export licenses to 77 beef facilities in the United States and has also extended licenses for 425 additional plants for another five years. Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, anticipates that China will spend a ten-figure amount on agricultural goods annually over the next three years, which includes soybeans, though this forecast is heavily based on prior soybean purchase agreements. Nevertheless, Chinese analysts warn that any new acquisitions beyond soybeans will be gradual, as Beijing is reluctant to meet demands that surpass actual requirements or are politically motivated. Lin Shen from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences emphasized that Beijing will not entertain such demands. In 2024, China imported around 27 million tonnes of American soybeans valued at about US$12.6 billion, per USDA data.