China may gain from UAE's Opec exit amid Iran oil crisis
The UAE's exit from Opec could present an opportunity for China to secure a larger oil supply, despite the ongoing challenges posed by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts suggest that the UAE's newfound flexibility might enhance oil availability and lower prices for significant importers such as China. Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, anticipates that China will boost its imports from the UAE, potentially strengthening their energy relationship. In 2025, China received 692,000 barrels per day from the UAE, which represented 6% of its total seaborne imports of 3.17 million barrels daily. June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, indicated that China's access to UAE oil could increase through the spot market.
Key facts
- UAE withdrew from Opec
- China imported 692,000 barrels per day from UAE in 2025
- UAE exports 3.17 million barrels per day total
- China's UAE imports account for 6% of its seaborne imports
- Strait of Hormuz disruption remains a serious constraint
- Analysts say UAE's flexibility could boost supply and lower prices
- Muyu Xu of Kpler expects China to increase UAE purchases
- June Goh of Sparta Commodities says China may tap UAE oil via spot market
Entities
Institutions
- Opec
- Kpler
- Sparta Commodities
Locations
- China
- UAE
- Strait of Hormuz