AI World Cup 2026: GPT-5.5 Thinking Predicts Spain's Victory

The AI World Cup has set a new standard by assessing ten large language models (LLMs) on their capacity to predict the outcomes of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Each model generated a single pre-tournament forecast using uniform inputs, including the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring method. Predictions encompassed group-stage scores, rankings, knockout brackets, final placements, confidence levels, and brief rationales. Following the completion of all 104 matches, GPT-5.5 Thinking topped the results with 744 points, trailed by GPT-5.5 (717), Gemini (699), and Qwen 3.7 (687). Remarkably, GPT-5.5 Thinking was the sole model to accurately name Spain as the champion, who triumphed over Argentina 1-0 in the final. The final standings were largely influenced by knockout-stage outcomes. This benchmark seeks to standardize the comparison of LLM forecasting capabilities, addressing inconsistencies in previous evaluations. The paper can be found on arXiv with the identifier 2608.03416.