AI Economy in US Grows at 2,600% Annually, Study Finds

A new paper by economists from the University of Virginia, Anthropic, and the Bank of Canada reveals that the AI economy in the United States is growing at an unprecedented rate of approximately 2,600% per year in quality-adjusted real terms, reaching an estimated nominal AI GDP of $250 billion in 2025. However, this growth is largely invisible in conventional GDP statistics due to rapidly falling per-unit prices for AI capabilities. The authors warn that policymakers relying on standard data may be unprepared for potential labor market shocks as AI increasingly substitutes for human labor. They recommend developing AI satellite accounts, generating better data on compute allocation, and incorporating AI productive-capacity measurements into economic projections. The paper highlights three measurement approaches: nominal compute spending (rising from $37 billion in 2023 to $219 billion in 2025), raw compute capacity (growing over 200% per year), and quality-adjusted AI output (growing roughly 2,290% in 2024 and 2,271% in 2025). The authors caution that a windfall that cannot be seen cannot be shared, urging statistical agencies and policymakers to adapt.